INDIA: BHABHA BLAST AND NUCLEAR UNDERWORLD Written by (Author ) Editorials, World Jan 1, 2010 ONLY THE US CAN FORCE INDIA TO OPEN HER NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS FOR INSPECTIONS Bhabha Nuclear Centre India The week ending December, 2009 has again opened many possibilities for the global nuke experts and IAEA to investigate the real troubles of Indian nuke plants. Year 2009 is also leaving number of unresolved questions regarding Indian nuke safety and security that might not be resolved even in 2010 also?  On second last day of 2009, a high intensity explosion at a chemical laboratory inside Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) took place which resulted into the death of two junior scientists, Umang Singh and Partha Bagh. Though Indian authorities claimed that no reactor, radioactivity or radiation was involved in the incident but severely charred bodies of the scientists and totally burnt equipment revealed that something very serious happened inside the plant. It is important to highlight here that BARC was started in 1954, as the Atomic Energy Establishment and apparently conducts the research in Biotechnology and Gama Rays. The initial investigations regarding BARC failure has given three leads to solve the mysterious occurrence. * Firstly, Indian scientists might be carrying out some experiment on biological and chemical agents. The experiment failed and chemical reaction caused damaged to the lives of the scientists and the laboratory.  According to a world news agency staff working on the plants also heard the blast inside the project. The blast and condition of the death bodies do confirm that India is preparing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). The preparation of WMD is the desired of Indian top military and political leadership. The intensity on this venture has been multiplied since self predicted Chinese threat on the border is being considered by the Indian leadership. * Second opinion could be that Indian scientists were yet to achieve expertise and hall mark in the nuke field. Their weak knowledge and causal attitude might become the reason of their death. But poor expertise of Indian nuke Programme has also put the lives of Indian and regional masses at stake. In this connection again we can noticed the lapses of security. There are reports that junior Indian scientists were busy in carrying out experiments on preparing some chemical and biological weapons but failed to tackle the situation because of their less experience. It was further reported that they even never have been guided by their senior colleagues. August 27, 2009 interview of senior nuke scientist K Santhanam, with “Times of India” confirms that nuke test at Pokhran II further endorse the weakness of Indian nuke programme. He admitted that the only thermonuclear device tested was a “fizzle”. The incidents of Kaiga, Pockran and now BARC do reflects that Indian nuke plants are real danger to humanity since her scientists are lacking requisite experience in this field. * Third version could be that some member out of nuke staff intentionally carried out some sabotage activities inside the plant with the purpose of killing some key members of the team. The two killed might be having some knowledge of on going Indian nuke proliferation and killed by the Uranium smugglers present on Indian nuke plants. Earlier also, on June 13, 2009 dead body of Indian famous nuke scientist Lokanathan Mahalingam was recovered from Kali River. The scientist was working on Kaiga Atomic Power Station for the last eight years. Reportedly, he was in possession of highly sensitive information and might be doubted for Indian nuke proliferation. Mahalingam was involved in training apprentices on a replica of the actual reactor. However the exact cause of the fire has yet to be ascertained with some deliberate efforts to dig out the actual causes of repeated nuke incidents in India. As the frequent recurrences of this magnitude will not only endanger the Indian population but the spill over affects could bring harm to the region also. Thus IAEA should send some teams of expertise to inspect the Indian nuke plants to ensure safety of the people on and off the nuclear installations. Indian government should also carry out detailed investigations through global experts since some members of the police and the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) of the centre could be involved in the frequent nuke accidents in India. Indian Prime Minister should not declare BARC incident as mischief and should seriously remove the weaknesses of the safety and security of Indian Nuke programme. In fact, the incident of BARC need to be thrashed out seriously since India is already heading towards making WMD. So called think tank Bharat Verma, Editor Indian Defence Review has started propagating that China and Pakistan would be attacking India in 2012.  Indian scholars on their government directions are creating hype in the masses by design, since they  are trying to divert the public attention from their internal problems like poor nuke safety arrangements, ongoing separatist Maoist movement and regional issues like Khalistan, Kashmir, territorial disputes and water conflicts with the regional issue. Thus, we can deduce from the present media hype that India is preparing for global war, her propaganda campaign against China and Pakistan would be taken as her preemptive action against two allies. Chinese and Pakistan governments are already taking notice of new development in the region. Both the governments have the concern over increasing USA influence in Asia and Indo-USA Nuke Deal. American Nuke exerts do have serious reservations about the said deal since Indian nuke safety arrangements are very poor. India is already facing the charges of smuggling and theft of enriched uranium. The world community should force India to open her Nuke Programme for regular inspections because the gravity of the threat posed to its immediate neighbours like China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka because of the location of Nuke Plants. IAEA should act as a watchdog to ensure smooth and safe running of Indian Nuclear Installations; presently the fear created by RAW amongst the staff could cause some high magnitude disasters. In short the detail investigations are required to be carried out at Indian nuke programme, covering the type of weapons being made, safety arrangements, cause of abductions, murders and killing of nuke scientists and staff. Big question is ‘Is India involved in Nuclear Underworld?’ Zaheerul Hassan http://www.daily.pk/india-bhabha-blast-and-nuclear-underworld-13859/ ...and I am Sid Harth

Losing the war against poverty? 31 Dec 2009, 0221 hrs IST, By R Gaiha & Vani Kulkarni If we go by the number of expert groups constituted in recent years to re-examine the methodology of conducting BPL census and to assess poverty, it is tempting to conclude that all is not well with the poor. While official estimates are self-congratulatory in portraying a significant reduction in poverty over the decade 1993-2004-from about 37% to over 28% — as a direct consequence of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and the concomitant growth acceleration, the expert groups are at pains to underplay or steer clear of the implications of a marked decline in calorie intake over the period 1983-2004. A recent analysis byDeaton A and J Dreze (2009) ‘Food and Nutrition in India: Facts and Interpretations’, EPW, Vol XLIV, No. 7) shows that the decline in total calories’ intake is more or less the same for the rich and poor. But cereal calories decline is much faster among the rich. In fact, per capita calorie intake has fallen at all levels of per capita household expenditure. Why people at higher expenditure levels have reduced their consumption of calories over time is perhaps not so hard to understand but why those at the lower end of the expenditure have done so is intriguing. A somewhat stunning result is that if we go by the norms of per capita calorie norms of 2,100 for urban areas and 2,400 for the rural, the proportions of calorie deficient populations in the urban and rural areas have risen over the period 1993-2004 — from about 58% to about 64% in urban areas, and from about 71% to about 80% in rural areas. As a result, at the all-India level, the calorie deficient population rose from about 68% to about 76%. If these figures tell a story of considerable worsening of nutritional deprivation over a period of comprehensive macro-policy reforms and accelerated growth, it is also a story of abysmal failure of anti-poverty programmes to correct nutritional deprivation and inequity. While there is no dearth of conjectures — an important one being that calorie requirements may have gone down because of better access to drinking water, transportation and last but not least improved epidemiological environment with less exposure to disease and infections — they are just that without empirical validation. A complementary explanation resting on changes in food preferences that involve emulation of consumption patterns of the rich and influence of advertisements ought not to be overlooked in understanding this calorie decline puzzle as incomes have risen. Unmindful of this puzzle, a valiant effort by two World Bank researchers (Datt G and M Ravallion, 2009) ‘Has India’s Economic Growth Become More Pro-Poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms?’;, Washington DC: Policy Research Working Paper 5103, October) produces a dazzling array of statistical evidence to establish that there has been a trend decline in different indices of poverty (i.e., the head- count ratio, the poverty gap index and the squared poverty index gap) over a period of 50 years, including 15 years of economic reforms. Both urban and rural poverty measures have declined. The more interesting results, however, relate to the comparison of the pre- reform (until 1991) and post reform periods (up to 2005-06). These include a faster reduction in the head-count ratio in the latter. Other measures of poverty that take into account intensity of poverty (the poverty gap index) and greater valuation of the gains of the poorest (the squared poverty gap index) do not register larger reductions in the post-reform phase. But the effects of changes in the composition of growth on poverty are dramatic. In the period up to 1991, the main driving force for overall reduction in poverty was rural economic growth. Moreover, urban growth reduced urban poverty while rural growth reduced rural poverty. However, in the post-reform phase, the more rapid rise in urban living standards has not just reduced urban poverty but also replaced rural economic growth as the main driver of reduction in overall poverty. Sluggish rural growth, by contrast, has benefited the deprived sections in rural areas but without any spillovers to the urban population. Urban growth, on the other hand, has alleviated not just urban poverty but also rural. Unfortunately, as the poverty estimates are not anchored to nutritional adequacy, the battery of statistical tests and their results do not help resolve the divergence between reduction in poverty and the consistent rise in calorie deficient population. Besides, the overemphatic view that urban growth is driving both rural and national poverty despite accentuation of expenditure inequality is intriguing in the absence of a clear articulation of the mechanisms through which these effects are transmitted. In brief, if the war against poverty is judged in terms of nutritional adequacy, the prospects of winning it are daunting. (Raghav Gaiha is Professor of Public Policy, Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi; Vani S Kulkarni is Senior Lecturer, South Asian Studies, Yale University) http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5397530.cms ...and I am Sid Harth

India's defence spend doubled in the past five years Josy Joseph / DNA Thursday, December 31, 2009 23:33 IST New Delhi: In keeping with the government’s commitment to modernisation of the forces, India spent around Rs140,000 crore on defence purchase in the past five years. The amount is almost double the money spent on capital acquisitions in the previous five years. A senior official in the ministry of defence (MoD) said the three services entered into 465 contracts worth over Rs135,000 crore in the past three years alone. The official said there was a steady increase in funds being committed to modernisation and this was evident from the fact that in 2004-09, MoD spent Rs137,496 crore on capital acquisitions. In the five years before that, i.e. during 1999-2004, the total capital acquisitions were worth only Rs62,672 crore. If the trend of the past five years is anything to go by, India could end up spending almost Rs850,000 crore on defence deals in the decade starting this year. The capital expenditure, however, is only 39% of the defence budget. The defence budget of Rs141,703 crore this fiscal was a 23.65% increase over the revised budget estimates of last year. The MoD official said the government, which has been returning thousands of crores annually because of delay in procurements, was confident of spending the entire capital allocation this year. According to the defence expenditure review committee, which looked into MoD’s spending methods and suggested several reforms in its recently-submitted report, the drawbacks in the acquisition process resulted in the three services wasting the opportunity to utilise Rs42,691 crore between 2000-01 and 2007-08. But this year has been different. MoD has already spent 35.99% of its capital outlay in the first six months. The corresponding figure for last financial year was 13.65%. http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_india-s-defence-spend-doubled-in... ...and I am Sid Harth

China's century: on the march Rowan Callick, Asia-Pacific editor From: The Australian January 02, 2010 12:00AM Verdant mountains cannot stop water flowing; eastward the water keeps on going. THUS the headline for an article in which China's Xinhua newsagency has responded to Western critics of the country's role in the recent climate change conference. It included a detailed account of the government's efforts, and of Premier Wen Jiabao's meetings during his 60 hours in Copenhagen for the summit. It said, in defiance of attacks such as that of Britain's Climate Secretary Ed Miliband, who accused China of hijacking the event: The Copenhagen conference has put China on a higher and broader world stage. China has reason to be proud, and China will work even harder! This process is now viewed in China

India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, ET Bureau 1 January 2010, 12:15pm IST In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020: India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world's second-biggest economy, China's export-oriented model will erode sharply - the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India's GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China's growth will dip to 7-8%. India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch's heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant. In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital _link_ in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others. India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates - a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly. India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran's mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran. More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state. China, alarmed at India's rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council. Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai's suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai's growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-to-overtake-China-in-2... ...and I am Sid Harth

T N Ninan: Now fix the state T N Ninan / New Delhi January 02, 2010, 0:51 IST The big economic challenge of the past two decades was to improve efficiencies and achieve faster growth. Both goals have been achieved in substantial measure. Savings and investment rates have shot up, laying the ground for the GDP growth rate to accelerate from under 6 per cent to 8.4 per cent in the past seven years. The expectation now is that sustained 9 per cent annual growth is possible. The other challenge was to end the foreign exchange problem, which had brought India to near-bankruptcy in 1991. That too has been achieved, with a manageable current account situation and large net capital inflows. These results came from greater market-orientation, freer rein to the private sector, and opening up the economy to the world. All of it was needed, and the results are there for everyone to see. The largest reductions in poverty in recent decades have been achieved by the fastest-growing economies. But given the evidence of rising inequality, much of which has a state or regional dimension, and the threats posed by those excluded from the benefits of rapid growth, the time has come to broaden the focus, from just growth to the quality of growth. It is also time to assess what is urgent in all that remains undone. Hence, the following four propositions for the new decade. First, since India’s enterprise sector works better than its government sector, it is vital to focus attention on improving government systems, processes and capabilities. Without this, it becomes impossible to create a modern physical infrastructure, provide quality social infrastructure (health care, education services), and put in place the required institutional infrastructure, including policies that bring the best out of the private sector. Second, it is not enough to free the Tatas, Ambanis, Birlas, Mittals and others to compete; the narrow _base_ of large private industry and the problems in public-private partnership arrangements make it essential that quality public institutions continue to get built. After all, no privately created management institute other than one has been able to replace the Indian Institutes of Management at the top of the B-school rankings. It needs to be asked why the country could create five Indian Institutes of Technology in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and enterprises like Bharat Heavy Electricals in the 1960s and National Thermal Power Corporation in the 1970s, and why it is so difficult to replicate them now; why it was possible to set up the Indian Agricultural Research Institute then, and why agricultural research is floundering today. Third, no one can be proud of India in 2020 if the eastern hinterland is not brought up to speed. It is not possible to solve the problems of Bihar by forcing Biharis to go to Mumbai; they need options in their own state. Once again, it is public policy that has failed. The surprising truth is that fiscal transfers from the Centre to the states have worked against the poorest states; if Maharashtra got the same per capita fiscal transfers that Bihar did, the story in that state would have been the same as in Bihar (as the Thackerays should be told). As in so many other things, the starting point has to be public investment. Finally, India as a lower-middle income country has reached the stage where it should have a proper social security system to take care of those who cannot take care of themselves. Not boondoggles marked by leakages and misallocations, not subsidies that mostly go to the non- poor, but straight fiscal transfers that go directly to the poorest. These are not new issues, but they will define the India of 2020. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/t-n-ninan-now-fixstate/38... ...and I am Sid Harth